Longer Downfall in Crude and Gold- a T-A-X Analysis

May 16, 2011

Longer Downfall in Crude and Gold- a T-A-X Analysis
By Kanti Mohan Pandit,
Center Business Intelligence & Forecasting 16th May 2011

The commodity prices have not remained steady towards one direction in May but the trends indicate downward movements. Gold price has moved below $1500 and Crude oil price also has moved below $100 after touches their new peaks in April.
From16th May onwards Commodity prices have lost certain important support strength for upward movement. This is ominous trend for traders and investors. They must be waiting for a new buoyant start soon considering the current downfall as a correction. I also wish they must enjoy the fruits of rising market in commodities particularly the precious metal and oil market. But energy profile analysis indicated otherwise. You must know that my market analysis is based on ‘Space Energy Profile’ present and operating currently or in the near future. The combination of three energy profile ‘T-A-X’ does not encourage higher price in the near future. The X energy factor, which was dominant till April to raise price has given in to the more powerful energy factor ‘A’, which does not support inflation in gold/silver and oil price. The present scenario in gold and oil price segment is therefore viewed as depressed. This falling price scenario in gold and Crude oil is likely to continue longer in May except system correction in between. I advise traders and investors to play cautiously.

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Energy Pro Analytics- Advanced Business Forecasting System

April 13, 2011

The world is growing with investors all around with a view to earn profitable returns through investments in stocks, commodities, real estates, precious metals and so on.
You can be success in your investment only when either you are lucky or you have correct investment tips. The most popular investments tips available in the commercial world today are fundamental analysis of Technical analysis. both have their inherent limitation. A new analysis system has been lately introduced by an analytical super expert through the ‘Microsolar’s Weblog in June 2008. After removing many hurdles in forecasting correct business trends the system has been perfected to yield better results today. The system is known as ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ that is based on real space electricity present in our space and consumed by the electrically conductive earth. Several forecasts are made through various forums that found gradual acceptance by investors. Forecasts based on ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ provide the probable periods of investment when market is ripe for up trends and warn exit out when the market is exhausted to prompt down trend.
For correct and real experience on Investment forecasts based on ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ visit ‘microsolar.wordpress.com’ or ‘energyinsight@yahoogroups.com’ or Businessforecast.webs.com

Investment Profits at Fingerer Tips

April 13, 2011

The world is growing with investors all around with a view to earn profitable returns through investments in stocks, commodities, real estates, precious metals and so on.
You can be success in your investment only when either you are lucky or you have correct investment tips.The most popular investments tips available in the commercial world today is fundamental analysis of Technical analysis. Both have their inherent limitations.

A new analysis system has been lately introduced by an analytical super expert through the ‘Microsolar’s Weblog in June 2008. After removing many hurdles in forecasting correct business trends the system has been perfected to yield better results today. The system is known as ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ that is based on real space electricity present in our space and consumed by the electrically conductive earth. Several business forecasts are made through various forums that found gradual acceptance by investors. Forecasts based on ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ provide the probable periods of investment when market is ripe for up trends and warn about exit out when the market is exhausted to prompt down trend.
For correct and real experience on Investment forecasts based on ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ visit ‘microsolar.wordpress.com’ or ‘energyinsight@yahoogroups.com’ or Businessforecast.webs.com

Contrasting Gold and Crude markets in April-May 2011

April 13, 2011

Contrasting Gold and Crude markets in April-May

Based on Energy Pro Analytics 11th April 2011

Kant.pandit, Center Business Intelligence and Forecasting

The current market phase of gold and crude oil is likely to end by April 12-13, 2011. This phase is seen acting bullish for both the segments. Gold is already heavyweight by now and is likely to lose some weight.

The new phase starts from April13 and is likely to carry with it mixed blessings in gold and crude market. Crude oil may remain luckier than gold in recent future as per the analysis based on

`Energy-Pro Analytics’

The precious metal may not return profit from13th April 2011 0nward. The fragment from 13.4 to 26.4 may be registering a fall in gold price. During this period Crude oil is likely to go up to touch around$130-$133 per barrel. There is likelihood of change in equation of gold and crude markets by 8th May 2011. Kindly wait for my next posting on this subject.

The world crude oil market may be under stress with renewed volatility in the crude supply position caused by some new untoward development in the Arab and African oil world thereby impacting the oil supply position. You may visit `Businessforecast.webs.com’ for more forecasts on gold and crude in 2011.

Bullish Crude in April 2011

April 3, 2011

Bullish Crude 3rd April 2011
By Kanti Mohan Pandit, CEO
Center Business Intelligence & Forecasting
The first phase of falling crude price appear to be over with price rising from the month of April. The market is bullish now and investors are happy finding more money to put in the channel. Will this euphoria continue for longer or investors and traders will have to face another setback soon? This is the burning question at present and need to be answered. As we have witnessed the market with falling Brent price since 8th March 2011 and touching the bottom of $107 per barrel in March itself. But the fast changing geopolitical scenario in the oil producing states pulled up the price again to restore it from where it moved down.
The international oil scenario is still on turmoil. I had thought the price of oil would fall on the news of Libya accepting the Truce offered by UN but that was a mirage. The Libyan dictator is not in the mood to relent so easily. He is still prolonging the turmoil with a view to break the country. In this situation there is bound to be pressure on global oil supply of the sweet variety Libya produces. There are other Arab countries also which are burning at present. Yemen is a hotspot. The fire here may burn even South Arabia. Nigeria may erupt on the occasion of their presidential election to be held this month. These burning issues are likely to put the oil issue warmer or on fire to lift prices of crude oil on higher side.
On demand side Japan may be getting ready to rebuild and restart the defunct refineries and the damaged roads to make then transportable. This will demand more oil very soon. America’s gradual economic recovery also may add to the demand for more oil in near future. India is on the new budget period with higher growth target requiring more oils.
These factors of mismatched supply and demand are putting oil investors and traders on tenterhooks. They expect prices to go up amidst the uncertainty and ready to buy at higher prices. The result is the current crude price at $118 (Brent) and 106 (WTI) per barrel.
The ‘Energy Pro Analytics’ designed by me based on space energy also indicates towards higher prices in the future. There is likelihood of an intermittent correction in the rising price of oil by 6th or 7th of April. From 14th April the resistance forces are likely to thrive on the productive energy module present today. This may create hurdles for smooth flow of oil supply in the market resulting in higher oil prices further up. Brent oil may touch more than $125 per barrel by 21st April 2011.
This analysis is educational and investors require their own study to apply this for investment purpose. Best of luck!

Gold to Humble Again in March 2011

March 8, 2011

Gold to Humble Down Again from Middle of March 2011
By kanti Mohan Pandit
Director, Center Business Intelligence & Forecasting

Crude Oil Price in March 2011

February 24, 2011

By Kanti Mohan Pandit
Energy Insight
Our planet is not uniformly blessed with similar resources everywhere. Some parts are blessed with more and more factories to manufacture and produce goods with support of new inventions in machineries, tools and techniques such as European countries, North American Countries, Japan and South Korea. In contrast, some other countries such as China are blessed with maximum of exportable products manufactured or otherwise. India and Brazil are blessed with specialized knowledge and skill for providing services. Similarly Arab countries and parts of African countries are blessed with crude oils, gases and other minerals. We can divide earth in to 12 power segments and three resource groups. Our earth absorbs T.A.R electrical charges carried by Sunrays differently at different power zones.

If we divide earth into 12 parts of 30 degree each longitudinally and name them C1 starting for 0 –30 east of Greenwich where Europe falls, 120-150 degree east (C5) where Australia, South Korea parts of Japan and China fall, and 90-120 degree east of Greenwich (C9) where important parts of USA and Canada fall. The power segments from C1 to C9 get different values of sunrays (Solar Functional Energy) exposed to different parts of earth at a particular time when sun is closely exposed to that part of earth.
C1- C5-C9 are network of energy inlets of earth that receives the electrical charges carried through the sun rays that are capable to convert material resources into products in factories at much better rate and quality compared to other inlets. These names are mentioned in the above diagram are Germany, France, England, Australia, Japan, South Korea, United States of America and parts of China. If energy electron factor ‘T’ focuses here along with resistant factor ‘R’ there is heavy erosion of demand for oil resources to create mismatch with the supply thereby pushing oil prices down. If ‘A’ proton energy factor also joins this network it reverses the erosion of demand and matches the supply side and gradually raises the price. If ‘A’ energy factor alone joins the network with ‘T’ in the network it pull down oil prices heavily and no sign of price rise is seen until ‘A’ is removed from the network. If ‘R’ resistant factor finds its focus on the network it can pull up prices up. The network represents the demand side of oils better.

C2-C6- C91 are the specialized network energy inlets of earth to receive electrical charges through sunrays to convert the molten lava inside the earth into reserved store of minerals to be explored and consumed by factories in and around the world. These inlets are positioned next the respective C1-C5-C9 energy inlets. These divisions of earth comprise of Arab countries, Russia, parts of African countries (C2) and parts of United States of America, Venezuela, (C91) that are the real storehouses of all types of minerals crude and gases. This is basically the oil supply network. Focus of energy factors on this network disturbs the balance in crude oil supply thereby mismatching the demand from the manufacturing economies and let oil prices go up relentlessly.
Other networks are also important but relatively lesser to influence oil prices.

The oil demand supply scenario at present is divided into two opposite situations. The demand network is under severe pressure from American, European and parts of Asian countries like Japan. Countries outside the conventional demand network such as China (C4) and India (C3) are sustaining the demand for oil to outwit the deficiency caused by the other conventional group. Coupled with this political turmoil in most of the conventional oil producing states whether under OPEC or non- OPEC created undue pressure on the supply to mismatch the rapidly growing demand for oil. The mismatch raised the price of oil consistently from the day of the new millennium started. In the new millennium when the world economy was growing rapidly from 2002 onward crude oil prices too increased rapidly to unbearable level by 2004. Successive efforts of OPEC to increase quota of production could not materialize and price went on increasing till it touched the peak of $46 per barrel in 2004. Barring a small gap oil price continued increasing to touch two peaks of $140 and $100 in the span of 3 years. OPEC or non OPEC countries remained onlookers with pious wishes to stem the prices and could not do anything.
The present oil scenario is marked again with two divergent situations. The conventional oil demand network countries are gradually recovering from the long recession. This will add to the demand for oils already on the boil caused by the rapidly growing demand for oil by the fast growing countries of China and India. On the other hand the political turmoil in Arab countries Tunisia, Egypt, Libya is growing but not flaring up for long. There is likelihood of oil supply be under pressure. Analysts worldwide are speculating of oil crisis to deepen soon if any other major oil producing country such Iran joins the turmoil. We have already witnessed a surge in oil price recently from 19th February 2011, which is dangerous for the global economy as a whole.

Will this turmoil continue unabated, spread to other oil producing countries or calm down in the new future? This is a vital question to be answered before answering the question ‘Whither Oil Price’? According the model Solar Functional Energy’ model oil producing countries OPEC network at present are under pressure but temporarily should be relieved of the pressure. Many OPEC members and non-OPEC courtiers are likely to increase their exploration and compensate the shortfall of supply registered at present. The relief can be seen from 4th March that may be reinforced from 14th March 2011. Crude oil prices which might get some more weight till 3rd March that may touch around $115 to $125 per barrel (Brent) may subside very quickly thereafter to touch $86 by the middle of April 2011. If the turmoil in Libya ends by middle of March which is likelihood price may tread down faster.
Let us hope for the best!

Oil Market Forecast & Space Electricity

February 24, 2011

Energy Insight

Business trends and economic cycles are discovered to be controlled by Space electricity generated by Solar flares and stored and reemitted by planet Saturn in the form of electrons and Jupiter in the form of Protons. These electrical charges are carried by Sun rays to electrically conductive earth, in the form of ‘Solar Functional Energy’ for productive uses and for activating human brains. This energy can be sourced through mathematical modules and used for measuring economic Trends/business trends in an economy or an economic sector. The process is made simple by T-A-R module, which is composite of negative, positive and resistant charges that determine the trends-downward, upward and stable.
As negative and positive electrical charges individually are not capable to light an electrical bulb the electrical charges of Saturn and Jupiter individually cannot create a productive economic environment. Whenever a particular segment or economy on earth is exposed to Saturn from the closest angular distance the segment or the economy gets electrified with negative charge. Saturn produces the economic gravitation in that zone to gravitate resources from other zones too at the minimum cost possible to enable the economy to flourish manifold with support of Jupiter. When the segment receives the positive charge from Jupiter it creates a limited productive economic environment. Whenever negative and positive electric constituents move apart farther away it strengthens the negative charge to create deteriorating economic environment and simultaneously when the resistant factor moves towards the negative energy factor it reinforces the negative economic environment to the maximum as happened in 1930 Great Depression or in 2008 to result in long drawn recession.
By observing hundreds of examples from the economic history theory of economic events having deep correlation with Space electricity can be established. The model can be used for forecasting trends in future in the oil sector as well. We would examine the oil market in the context of ‘Solar Functional Energy’ and its energy module T-A-R and analyze and forecast the future crude oil price trends.

Oil price is a subject of great interest to all. When oil price becomes volatile it disturbs many economies and may even threaten political entities. There came three major oil shocks in the oil market, one in1973, in 1979 and finally in 2008 that changed the entire equation in the contemporary economy. The first ever known oil upheaval that got registered in the economic history is in 1859 when crude oil price hit the peak of $16 per barrel that was extremely high from that time standard. The price did not stay at that level for long and in the next year price reduced to $9.59 per barrel. From here the price nosedived to $0.49 per barrel. What led the price to be so volatile? Oil industry was at nascent stage that time with new drilling in Pennsylvania. Demand for oil was very high but uncertain. Supply was very uncertain and inelastic. The market was fragmented and monopolized. Slight variation in demand supply positions fomented the oil problem with shooting up in oil price.
In 1970s OPEC came into the picture of oil market to control the supplies and aimed to leverage the price. In the uncertain environment of world of war between Israel and Arab countries the oil price moved about four times from $3 per bbl in 1972 to $12 per bbl in 1974.

The period of 1980s was also marked with extremely price volatility when oil price from the bottom of single digit to $34 per barrel by March 1981. The extreme movement of prices is so adamant that efforts to control it by controlling supplies hardly respond.
There are a few important features of oil price volatility. The first surge in price last for not more than two years. The efforts of the oil producers to stem the price rise hardly responds. Similarly their efforts to stop a falling price also are not seen responding as in the case of 1997-98 price crash. In 1997 crude oil price had a sudden halt and reversed. In 1997 two important events took place. South East Asia faced acute financial crisis with reduction in oil consumption and OPEC countries instead of curtailing quota increased it by 2.5 million bbl per day. The action had unexpected impact on the price and that fell down to a low of $ 8 per barrel.
During 1986 when crude oil price continued falling from $24 in 1985 to sheer $9 per barrel in 1986 July the efforts of OPEC to stabilize prices utterly failed. The main reason was the overruling the dictate of OPEC by the members to control production and who produced beyond the quota.
In the new millennium when the world economy was growing rapidly from 2002 onward crude oil prices too increased rapidly to unbearable level by 2004. Successive efforts of OPEC to increase quota of production could not materialize and price went on increasing till touched the peak of $46 per barrel in 2004. Barring a small gap oil price continued increasing to touch two peaks of $140 and $100 in the span of 3 years. OPEC or non OPEC countries remained onlookers with pious wishes to stem the prices and could not do anything. Now there is a sign of hope seen in the start of the New Year 2011.
In the next article we would understand space Electricity more closely and examine the impact on crude oil price movements.
To be continued in the next series of articles…………………

January 17, 2011

Inflation in Indian vs. US economy

Inflation demon has created a big furore in every economy of the world. In India the food inflation index rose 18.32 percent in the year 2010 up to December 25. Fuel prices too climbed high to touch 11.63 percent. This is a steep rise over last week’s price when food inflation was 14.44 percent up and fuel prices was 11.63percent up on annualized basis.

Indian housewives are turning panicky over the unrelenting price jerk since their household budget has been run down mercilessly by the inflation demon. They have been shuddering to face the bigger demon in the next month to wipe their presence from the kitchen.

Microsolar analysis of the inflation demon brings solace for these panicky housewives. The demon is not likely to grow in size after 21st January 2011 though the thrust on food inflation will be felt for some more time. The rate of inflation is to be downsized from the peak that may touch 20%(Food Inflation) percentage or near this level. From June 2011 when the resistant factor will shift its thrust from the present position the inflation demon is likely to lose its strength drastically.This trend is likely to be set in other economies as well where rate of inflation had been going up rapidly

Inflation has different face in US economy. Inflation rate in here started ascending from May 2007 from the base of 3.94% in April to 5.6% in July, which happened to be the peak. 2009 has been the year of negative inflation rate and it touched the lowest -0.034% by December. From this bottom the rate of inflation has gone up in 2010 though it has remained mild only from the middle of the year. This is almost just opposite of what happened in Indian economy from 2008 March. (See the chart attached)

Gold Price Forecast 2011

December 16, 2010

Gold price Trend Forecast 2011

Based on Solar Functional
Energy-Business Forecasting System