Gold and Dollar Global Trends –Long Term
Model: Functional Solar Energy
By kanti Mohan Pandit
Gold has been accepted all over the world as a hedge against uncertainty for thousand of years. This is one of rare products whose prices are not determined by the interplay of demand and supply but mainly by demand forces. Inflation, interest rates and uncertain futures control demand forces. A falling value of dollar is another sign for increase in demand for more gold since it turns to be more lucrative source of investment.
During continuous inflationary situation the psychology is to save in through a medium that is more stable. Gold is a stable medium of saving and its demand goes up when its price is up.
*In 1920 the gold price was ruling at $20 per ounce in USA but as depression set in there the value went up in the black market.
*In 1934 the gold price was regulated to be at $ 35 per ounce.
*After the gold market was deregulated in 1971 the price went up from $35 to $200 in 1974
*1979 -80 had been the year of hyperinflation and the gold price had also gone intensely high from $265 in May1979 to $850 on 22nd January 1980.
*In the current millennium the gold price again moved up sharply from the low of $282 in 2000 to $1030per ounce on 17th March 2008. This was straight 23% up from January 08. From this day gold price slumped to $865 by May13, 08and again moved up to $939 by May21 08. At present the gold price has been moving down till date to touch $ 865.
Average Gold Price in Rupees per 10 grams in 5 years interval in India
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
183 545 1452 2106 3406 4799 4518 8000 12000
198% 166% 45% 62% 41% -6% 77% 50%
The gold price in India- a major market of gold, which was in average Rs.183 per 10 gram in 1970 rose up 198% to Rs.545 by 1975. By 1980 the price further raised up to Rs.1452 –a rise of 166% over 1975 prices. Thereafter the gold price did not rise up to that extent. During 5 years in between 1980 and 1985 the gold price went up by 45% to Rs. 2106. In between 1985 to 1990 it went up by 66% to Rs. 3406, in between 190-95 the price went up by 41% to Rs.4799 and from 1995-2000 it went down by –6% to Rs.4518. From here the gold prices had a sharp up trend to touch almost R.12000 in average in 2008 till March. Now it stands at Rs.11860 per 10 gram till 5th May2008.
1970 T1 A7 R92 Prevailing price $35 per ounce /US
1971 T1/2.4 A8 R91
1972 T2 A9 R91/9.9 T+4R A not in module
1973 T2/3.5 A91 R9 T+6R .5 A not in module $200 converging T/R after apex divergence
Let us study the changed salutation in the TAR modular combinations that made USA and IMF to sell about 1175 tones of gold in between them.
In 1971 when ‘R’ had its focus on C91 it formed modular contact with T1 as T-3R and later T-4R from May and became instrumental as gold price inflator. In 1972 T-4R module continued. T+6R module set in 1973 terminated the inflator T/R module.
1974 the T+6R module broke this module and let the bubble burst
1971:T-3R modular combination inflated the gold price up. This price inflator continued it impact on the gold price in 1973 also till in May T+6R module was formed which is the deflator of price bubble. Therefore the price balloon burst up at $200.
1979: T7 A6 R5 T7 A7.9 R5 (Position of ‘A’ changes in September)
1980: T6 A5 R5 T5 (4-7) A6.10 R4.8 (‘T’ changes it position from Ap –July)
During 1979 May to 21st January 1980 the main reason for gold price hyper jump is the focus of ‘T’ and ‘R’ jointly on C5 that is a power point.
I have stated earlier in my paper that power points such as C1, C5 and C9 are the most strategic energy inlets and focus of ‘T’ or/and ‘R’ on that point creates havoc for the economy.
In case of 1979 also T+R focus on C5 created havoc for the many economies the world where the focus was targeted. The hyper rise in gold price is caused by that T+R in C5. T-3C in C2 activated this joint modular impact in May. Gold price continued till the module existed and remained operational. By Jan 1980 ‘T’ backtracked in C4 that broke away ‘T’ from ‘R’ and ended the joint operation.
2001: T2 A2 A3.7 R3 ( ‘a’ changes its focus from July to C3)
2002: T2T3.8 A3A4.8 R2.4
2003 T3 T2(2-5) A4A5.8 R2 R1.10
2004: T3 T4.10 A5 A6.9 R1
The first module of T+2R, which is price inflator, is set in 2001 with T2 and R4. Gold prices started rising up from here only. In 2002 T+R remained operational. The T/R power remained intact in 2003 also because ‘T’ and ‘R’ remained very close without being neutralized by ‘A’. In 2004 T-3R module was again set to inflate the price bubble.
2005: T4 T3(2-5) A6 A7.10 R1 R93.4
2006: T4 A7 R93
2007: T4 T5.8 A8 R92
2008 T4 T5.8 A9 R92 R91.6
In 2005 T-3R module continued operating that gave in to T-4R module. Both boosted up the gold prices. T-4R module continued its operation in 2006. From August 2007 T+6R module was set, which is as per rule of the game is set to prick the price bubble from the stage this module gets activated by Functional ‘C’. This activation took place in 2008 March that led to gold price falling from this month. After T+6R module the bubble of gold prices has finally burst and there is no prospect of its further continuous rise for long until T/R module is again set. The module of T+4C/A+C in June-July will further scuttle the chance of gold price rise.
Dollar values have also been going up from March 2008 to maintain the basic correlation between the gold and dollar.
The basic principle is the T/R module is a price inflator without ‘A’ in the combination and T+6R module is the terminator of that bubble. The focus of T/R module on a power point will aggravate the price bubble to inflate to the maximum.
.The theory is bit complicated. You need to concentrate from the first chapter of this write-up to have clear comprehension of the subject. In case of any enquiry please contact kanti.pandit@gmail.com
N.B. Charts on modular formation have been removed for technical reasons
October 7, 2008 at 2:28 am |
omg.. good work, bro
October 11, 2008 at 12:24 pm |
Thank You for good comment