Stronger India after Global Recession

Stronger India after Global Recession

By K.M. Pandit

Indian Outsourcing industry, which converted millions of its talented Indians into becoming truly internationalized personality with very high level of confidence and Indian pride, is perhaps collapsing under the pressure of American Recession. The industry created sizeable employment in India and generated revenue equal to 1percent of Indian GDP. The addition was made when India badly needed it at its threshold of take off to super economy. This is in the natural process in economic growth cycle that older super economy supports another economy to grow from baby to adulthood. China has taken lot of advantage of American Economy into amassing billions of dollars into is coffer and is almost ready to supersede the present super power. India too has entered into the cyclical phase to move toward a super economic power in the near future. The only major difference between India and China is the sector of economy through which to acquire this status. China has shown its superiority in manufacturing and exporting goods at rock bottom prices to Americans and others and India is doing the same by selling the services of its English speaking talented young adults in BPO and KPO sectors. India need not worry much about the impending recession that has set in today. This is a temporary phase in the growth spectrum of Indian economy. India has entered into long term growth cyclical phase in 2003 itself and is going to sustain it for very long period. The present recession is going to have long term impact on advanced economies such as USA and Japan and not on India and China. Of course 2009 and parts of 2010 will not prove good for out sourcing industry for Indian business. The basic reason is the deteriorating economic fundamentals in USA and the commitment of Barrack Obama to keep American employment at an appreciable level at the cost of BPO.
With India entering the growth cyclical phase Indian industries have grown fast and high to attain world scale. Many industries are becoming multinationals ready to spread far and wide. This the typical sign of a growing economy in the economic cycle phase. The advanced economy enters into declining phase and may not be able to maintain its status quo and may give in to the nascent economies, which have entered in to the growth phase. Several industries in India such as Telecommunication, automobile, oil and Gases are growing gigantic to create opportunities for domestic BPO that may gradually compensate the loss the outsourcing industries are suffering. The foundation for growth is laid not in one day but for several years. Indian Outsourcing industry owe to the English speaking youths for its success. This foundation was laid in the 19th and 20th centuries during the British rein in India which taught the international language and the fine democratic system to the Indians. Today Indians are harvesting on this and have been building one of the strongest fortes to compete any one in the world. Indians are one of the best managers in the world who can enable India to fight the temporary economic nightmare and to reach to the helm. Indians need to have patience and persistence to fight out to sustain the Resurgent India.

US Economic Recovery Not by 2010

US Economic Recovery Not in 2010
Based on Solar Functional Energy Model

By Kanti Mohan Pandit

There are forecasts about US economy recovering from 2010. The Wall Street Journal surveys 54 professional forecasters, mostly from financial institutions. The National Association for Business Economics have the leading forecasts on the subject.
I read about these forecast with attention and wanted to accept it being associated with reputed names. But when I reviewed it with my model of forecasting ‘Solar functional Energy’ I noted a little doubt on these forecasts. Let me correct it according to my model.
2009
C9 C91 C92 C93 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8
R A A
(4-8) T

2010: T-A-R as T6 A92 A93.6 R9
C9 C91 C92 C93 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8
R A A.6 T

The year of 2009 will definitely be the year of downtrend in US economics. The recession will continue further in 2010 as well at least till middle of the year. In September 2009 one of the Constraints factors of solar functional energy T5 is removed from the problem zone and by December another constraint factor R91 is also removed from the US economic zone. This last constraint factor is revived again in another US economic zone C9 that might have serious repercussion on industrial development of USA affecting outsourcing business particularly with India. Because of another development which is positive in nature A93 from June the constraint factor will be relented by June-July 2010 bringing a relief to the economy but not outright. US economy has to suffer further but with lower intensity.

Arithmetic of Keynes’s Expectation Theory

Arithmetic of Keynes’s Expectation Theory

Based on ‘Solar Functional Energy’
By Kanti Mohan Pandit

‘Expectation’ has central role to play in economics and business. People in the economic world expect something profitable to happen and they gear their actions towards the target they make and wish it to make happen. The economists or the economic agents also expect to achieve some specific targets in the economy and formulate their policies towards the expected targets to be achieved in the future. Every economic model prepared by these experts for actions by economic agents aim to fulfill the well defined expectation at the beginning when the model is introduced.

Economic environment is often uncertain. People, housewives, businessmen, and economic agents all have to face this uncertain situation and maneuver in order to manage their money, investment, and economy well. People try to acquire expertise through their past actions and experience to err less and less to get better return on their money saved or invested, Similarly business managers, economic agents in the government and all others concerned also maneuver their plans, actions, budgets and activities to achieve the targeted objectives. This may involve adjustments of expectations according to the observations registered in the past about errors and successes. Efforts are made to make better and reliable forecasts about market conditions, economic variables such as inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, taxes, subsidies and so on to fit in to make the economic efforts successful. Business houses will need to know the prospects of investments in segments certain to yield better ROI and stand better in the competition. They formulate and frame their policies and actions in uncertain conditions that must not lead to failure of their valued investments. Even the best of organizations with the best of expertise in command fail to survive because of the onslaught of happenings and abrupt turnings in uncertain situations. The current depression in United States of America, UK, Japan and many other countries are live examples. Many giant organizations failed to achieve their expectations of return on their investment and got doomed. Their expertise and their sophisticated analytical tools to know the future trends that could have fulfilled their expectations failed to act and yield wanted results.
What is the way out towards curtailing uncertainties and promoting more certainties? I am giving out a simple picture of a model that I developed through years of research useful for every economic agents, business managers, investments managers and common men and women.
The model is Kantian Energy Cycle of Business based on ‘Solar Functional Energy’. This energy establishes a functional relationship with earth and its resources through human brains and gets a task of material development accomplished. Let us assume ‘C’ as Solar Functional Energy’ then ‘C’ is a function of three energy capsule of T-A-R. Solar Functional Energy is present among us in the form of electricity. ‘T’ is the negative charge (called Electrons) and ‘A’ (called Protons) is the positive charge of ‘C’. They jointly generate positive and productive currents to run the economic and business world as sunrays run the life, vegetation and plants. ‘T’ and ‘A’ remain continuously active but alone they are not productive for long run. ‘T’ alone activates sun rays with negative charges, which is useful for activating an economic zone where it has focus but without ‘A’ it can’t yield productive results. ‘A’ alone can activate an economy productive for short period only. Both together activate an economic zone for long from a year to 14 years or more. These factors of solar electricity act trough human brain that becomes active for a target to complete, positive or negative according to the other power factors present. These solar electric power factors are constrained by dark energy present in the environment called ‘R’. This factor is also present always but remains dormant until in an aggressive zone or in contact with the solar electric factors ‘T’ and ‘A’.
I will present the graphic presentation of T-A-R network in my next article on ‘Arithmetic of Keynes Expectation’. Please look out for.

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2009

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast-2009
Kanti Mohan Pandit
Director, Business Intelligence & Forecasting, Kolkata
Based on ‘Solar Functional Energy” model
On June 2008 I published my first post in my blog with caption “Natural Death of Crude Oil Inflator TR’. I made the loud pronouncement about the near outright downfall of Crude oil prices from next month. This forecast was just opposite to the common forecast generally made by other experts about the bouncing crude prices ahead. The trend line forecasts were easily accepted by the traders and readers and my forecast was rejected. My readers were dismayed when the forecast came true and crude oil price started tumbling since July 08. Today six months have passed with the falling trends that made it an issue and a matter of shock for oil producers. They are apprehensive about the repetition of the kind of oil shocks they had experienced in 1997 and 1998 when the Brent oil prices had nosedived to single digit figure.
According to OPEC “Oil prices have witnessed a dramatic collapse – unprecedented in speed and magnitude,” OPEC said, adding that prices have fallen to levels that could jeopardize “many existing oil projects and lead to the cancellation or delay of others, possibly resulting in a medium-term supply shortage.”
The downward movement for the OPEC Basket of oil continued for the sixth consecutive month, dominated by the worsening economy. Many countries had moved into recession and the plunge in equity markets to a five-year low triggered fears of further oil demand destruction .The worsening economy and weak demand continued to weigh on market direction.
The forecast for the global economy in 2009 has been slashed by 1.4 pp to 1.5% as the major OECD regions slip deeper into recession and growth everywhere else slows. Following downward revisions, US growth in 2009 is now forecast at -1.3%, Euro-zone growth at -1.0%, and Japanese growth at -1.7%. Developing Countries are now expected to grow at 3.7% while China’s growth forecast now stands at 7.0% in 2009 while India’s GDP growth is expected to moderate to 5.8%. The US is officially in recession since December 2007, making the current recession already longer than the previous two. US labor market conditions have taken a turn for the worse in November, with a drop of more than half a million in payrolls. The unemployment rate at 6.7% is already higher than the peak reached in the aftermath of the 2001 recession. US retail sales continued to fall for the fifth month in a row. In the Euro-zone and Japan, recent economic indicators point to a deepening of the recessionary conditions as exports and industrial production slumped. In China, exports declined for the first time in seven years in November and industrial production growth fell sharply.
The vain attempt by the OPEC cartel to control the situation by reducing the daily production of 1.5 million-barrel daily reduction failed to rally crude prices, which have been plummeting since hitting a record high record high of $147 a barrel on July 11. The demand for oil and energy has been falling continuously because of ongoing recession in the world market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has already cut its growth forecast by 190,000 bpd to 690,000 bpd on the basis of reduced demand by developed countries. The crude oil price did not take any cue from these measures of OPEC and IEA and kept falling. From middle of November 2008 after touching the bottom the price lifted to $49 per barrel by December last. Recession continues to affect the demand for crude by the emerging economic giants of China and India. Stronger dollar has ensured that the actual fall in foreign currency terms has been less than for the United States. This implies continued weak trend for crude oil for the duration of the U.S. recession which is the key to crude oils trend for 2009. Crude for February delivery ended down at $35.35 a barrel in Nymex dealings. Crude has tumbled 63% in 2008, heading for its worst year since futures started trading on the Nymex in 1983.
T-A-R Scope for Future Oil Trends
‘Energy Cycle of Business’ takes into account the solar Functional Energy as the base. Solar Functional Energy is the solar rays transformed into solar electricity by external sources of positive charges (A) and negative charges (T). Together T+A establishes functional relationship with earth through human brain to act for productive activities in oils and minerals. The presence of dark energy ‘R’ often intercepts this productive energy and weakens the productive activities to cause slump in the economy and the industry. Solar Functional Energy(C) is a function of T+A -1/R.
The T-A-R energy capsule is an integral part of and major transformer of solar rays into ‘Functional Energy’ that earth absorbs to turn its resources into material wealth. The combination of T+A promotes exploration and manufacturing of minerals and products but its separation T-A reverse the process. Combination of ‘T’ and ‘R’ particularly in power points leads to excessive and undue demands for hoardings etc that causes inflationary situation.
Based on this T-A-R energy cycle I had commented in my blog: “The crude oil prices that remained surging since 2002 till date have the days numbered now on account of a definite sign of T+6R (when ‘R’ was placed at a distance of 180 degree from ‘T’) module on the verge of break from July and its final activation from September 08. We can hope for a definite respite from this economic onslaught on the global economy.”
Crude oil price started falling from July 2008 to honor my forecast and kept falling even today except for a small halt in December.
The major question today is how long and to what extent the price would go down! Let us study the crude oil demand- supply scenario on T-A-R Scope. The present operational T-A-R is T5 A91 R91. These T-A-R factors have united focus on the mineral belt of Arab from where Crude oil is extracted. T5 has a positive focus on this belt for greater amount of supply but R+A focus on US economy, China, Japan, European economies are adverse fro proportionate demand to support price rise except on specific periods. A live example can clarify the present scenario. In 1997-98 when crude oil price had touched its bottom of $11.56 and $11.24 faced similar though not exactly the same T-A-R capsule. T93 A91 R6 capsule operational in 1997 ruled to have direct impact on the crude oil bastion of Arab countries resulting in continuously fall in its prices from January 1997 to June 1998. In April 1998 the T-A-R capsule had changed into T1 A93 R6, which had no adverse impact on Arab countries except in the month of November -December 1998. There was a net fall of 57% in crude oil price in June 1998 over 1997 price. If we compare the present downfall this has come almost at par with 1997-1998 fall in crude oil price.
2009 oil Trend under TAR-scope
The present T-A-R capsule operational from January 2009 is T5 A91 R91. These T-A-R factors individually has direct and indirect impact on the Arab world, which produces oil for the world and the American and Chinese economies that consume it the most. R+A in C91 is the worst energy capsule to degenerate the oil demand. As a result of this the efforts of OPEC and other producing countries of the world will not be able to sustain the higher production and will necessarily have to keep their production lower to match the falling price. From May to August there is a divergence of ‘R’ and ‘A’ temporarily to have an impact in May-June 2009 to create demand for oil to raise prices of crude oil by average 10%. By September 2009 ‘T’ also will lose its contact with Arab countries to end the oil pressure. T6 +C from 16th September to October 2009 will have contact with R+A in C91 that will again put the price at lower end. However, the crude oil price will go up by November-December to touch $27/b in average. The oil price is likely to hover round in between $27-$32 per barrel from $37/b level. The following chart will present an annual movement as an indication.
2009 T A R
T5 A91 R91
T6.8 A92.5-7 R91
.12.14 Zone C9 C9
01.13 Cc $37/b on 14.1.
.01.14 C91 R+A+C Downward price
.to 02.13 -15%
.02.14 C92 T+6C Overall downward trend except last part
.03.13 +8.7%
.03.14 C93 Up trend first week and last week
To .04.13 -3%
.04.14 C1 Downtrend except last week
.05.13 -6%
.05.14 C2 T-3C Uptrend first week
.06 14 R-4C +10%
.06.15 C3 Downtrend except last of June
.07.16 -3.5%
.07.17 C4 R+6C Downtrend
.08.16 Confused period
.08.17 C5 T+C/T-C Small downtrend
.09.16 -4%
.09.17 C6 T+C,R-4C/A-4C Downtrend except the first part
.10.16 +6%
.10.17 C7 Downtrend
.11.15 -8%
.11.15 C8 T+2C Mixed trend
.12.13 +5%
.12.14 C9 R+C Uptrend
.12.31 +3%
This is an indication based on T-A-R analysis and should be used cautiously for any practical purpose. This will be subject to revision every month as the time rolls. However, I don’t take responsibility for any loss in the trading by using these indications.

Deep Depression of 2009

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Deep Depression of 2009

Model: Kantian Energy Cycle of Business

Premise: Solar Functional Energy is the basis of all economics

By Kanti Mohan Pandit, Director, Business Intelligence & forecasting Kolkata

Abstract

The global economy is already suffering from recession. Some countries are on the edge to enter depression phase. Japan is on the threshold to enter another long run depression that is likely to end by 2020. This forecast is based on the ‘Kantian Energy Cycle of Business’ that takes into account the solar Functional Energy as the base. Solar Functional Energy is the solar rays transformed into solar electricity by external sources of positive charges (A) and negative charges (T). The combination of T+A is a source of productive energy that establishes functional relationship with earth and activates human brain software to act for productive activities. The presence of dark energy ‘R’ often intercepts this productive energy and checks or weakens the productive activities to cause slump in the economy. Functional energy is created by ‘T’ ‘A’ and ‘R’ function in a system of C(f)=T+A/R that repeats every 59 years in an arithmetic progression so that ‘R’ focus becomes -2R focus and -4R focus and so on. The system can explain all the economic phenomena in an economy and forecast the future as well

Main

The most major economic crisis world has ever faced is the Great Depression of 1929 in the United States of America during 1929 to 1933 to 1939. In 1873 also there this country had faced a long drawn depression though the intensity of this crisis was not very high. In both the periods price trends were deflationary for a long period. Stock market had downtrend movement during depression period of 1929.

The recent recession of 2008 that engulfed so many economies in the world is gradually moving toward depression in some countries. Japan is already moving towards long contraction. There is doubt in everyone’s mind whether an economist or a common man about ‘How long will this recession last and which countries are going to have severe impact’? This question will be answered by the ‘Kantian Energy Cycle C/T-A-R. Kantian Energy cycle is determined by the solar functional energy ‘C’, which is a derivative of solar rays transformed by T-A-R energy components.

‘Solar functional Energy’ and its principal components ‘T-A-R’ will be able to analyze and explain these downward trends of the past and that is present today. They can be used to predict the forthcoming economic trends in the future. You will surprise to know that the basic structure of T-A-R components present today in 2008 and the following strategic years is very much like the TAR structure present in 1873 and 1929. 1929 structure of T-A-R is closer to that of 2008. The intensity of T-A-R is likely to be wilder in later parts of 2009 onward to create as much worse an economic downturn as that was in 1929 great depression. But this time the focal point is more towards the Japanese economy than USA.

In Japan the asset price bubbles had last started in1986 and lasted till 1990 when the bubble had burst. The economy of Japan remained in long drawn depression till 2002/03 when the stocks and asset prices bottomed out. It is virtually from this period only asset prices in many countries took an aggressive upward move.

How do T-A-R basics and solar functional Energy analyze and explain the price and market movement is given below but for this you have to briefly understand about this Kantian energy profile and TAR network.

T-A-R is a composite energy module having electrical components of positive charges (‘A’) referred to as Proton and negative charges(‘T’) referred to as Electron that transform sunrays on the way to earth into electrical energy. After the conversion sunrays becomes source of ‘solar functional energy’ termed as ‘C’ that establishes a functional relationship with earth and its resources to turn these into economic produce or wealth by taking human help through activating the brain software in human beings. You may not agree to or may dispute this theory but a patient glance and analytical watch on the following case studies will surprise you to accept this. The only condition is to shed any preconception and ego.

The biggest operational constraint faced by this Solar Functional Energy is the presence of dark energy ‘R’ that is potent enough to corrupt its functionality at the right level. Whenever ‘R’ intercepts the focus of solar functional energy or its components ‘T’ or ‘A’ on earth it makes it/ them non-functional or weakly functional. ‘T’ and ‘A’ move clockwise and focus earth. ‘R’ intercepts them by moving anticlockwise. They do this in a way to converge and diverge at certain intervals and thereby create cyclical energy contents and capsules of various potencies that ultimately affects the economies and their operational levels.

There are three types of permutations and combinations of T-A-R components while on the move to each other and while converging and diverging: T+A, T+R or R+A. T+A is a productive module at convergence that takes the form of T+1A, T+2A T+3A, T+4A, T+5A and T+6A. T+6A terminate the modular power of T/A series of modules. After this terminal point there is divergence of ‘T’ and ‘A’ forming T-1A. T-2A, T-3A, T-4A, T-5A and finally T-/+6A modules. This completes 360 degree of earth.

Similarly ‘T’ and ‘R’ while converging form T+R, T+1R, T+2R, T+3R, T+4R, T+5R, T+6R and while diverging form T-1R, T-2R, T-3R. T-4R, T-5R and T-/+R. These T/R modules are harmful modules that restrict productivity in the economy. ‘R’ and ‘A’ also forms similar modules but they also don’t promote productivity. ‘’R’ restricts the productive power of ‘A’ and promote recession and deflationary situation in the economy. Out of these modules the most productive modules are T+A, T+1A, T+2A and T-3A. T+A module terminate its productive modular energy at T+6A. The most destructive modules are T+R, T+1R, T+4R, T-4R and T-3R. T+R modules terminate its destructive modular energy at T+6R and vice versa. Let us suppose the following chart represents our earth having 12 segments to be of 360 degree of 30 degree each from C1 to be 30 degree and C93 to be 360 degree.( For more detail explanation on T-A-R visit www.microsolar.wordpress.com or read the e-book ‘Solar Functional Energy’ A1books.com)

The post potent T-A-R positioning is when ‘T’ and ‘A’ are converging to and ‘R’ is just diverging as in 1922 when the American stock market went on rampaging till the great depression started or in 1960s when US economies boomed for years.

The weakest T-A-R positioning is when ‘T’ and ‘R’ are converging with focus on power points and ‘A’ is just diverging from their module. This has occurred in 1929 (the sample is furnished in the following paragraph)

The following charts will exhibit these permutation and combinations along with the solar divisions of earth in C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, C8.C9, C91 C92 and C93. Our earth is divides in 12 parts of 30 degree the base point being Greenwich at 0⁰ East and West as follows:

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
				30	60	90	120	150	180	210	240
270	300	330	360
W	W	W	W West	00 East	E	E	E	E	E	W	W

The following chart shows the modular combinations with ‘T’ in C9 In case ‘T’ has a focus on C9, ‘A’ can form T+A in C9, T+1A module in C91 and so on.

Solar Division of Earth

Solar division of earth gets exposure to Functional solar energy(C) from Jan-December of a year

C

C9

C91

C92

C93

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

C7

C8

Dec Jan

Jan-Feb.

Feb-Mar

Mar-Apr

Apr-May

May-Jun

Jun-July

Jul-Aug

Aug-Sep

Sep-oct

Oct-Nov

Nov-Dec

USA

USA/ Canada

Brazil

UK

Europe Asia

Arab Russia

India

China

Japan Australia S. Korea

14.12

14.1

12.2

15.3

13.4

14.5

15.6

16.7

15.8

16.9

16. 10

15. 11

If we divide earth into 12 parts of 30 degree each longitudinally and name them C1 starting for 0–30 where Europe falls, C5 would include Australia, South Korea parts of Japan and China, and C9 would include important parts of USA. These specialized divisions are uniformly placed at equidistance from each other. From C1, C5 is situated 120 degree apart, from C5, C9 is situated 120 degree apart and from C9, C1 is again situated 120 degree apart. These are highly important zones on earth known as energy power points. Any damage to these power points by ‘T’ or ‘R’ will put the entire global economy in jeopardy with downturns. ‘A’ focus has productive impact there ‘A’ can minimize the negative effects of T/R module if in modular contacts with them. For example: T+A+R can make them positive to promote productive results. (T+R)+2A can also make the module productive but if T+R are in a power point C1 or C5 or C9 then ‘A’ in the module of T+R can’t make them productive. There are umpteen numbers of examples.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
T	A91	A92	A93	A1	A2	A3	A4	A5	A6	A7	A8
T+A	T+1A	T+2A	T+3A	T+4A	T+5A	T+6A	T-5A	T-4A	T-3A	T-2A	T-1A

Similarly ‘R’ can form T+R in C9, T+1R in C91 and so on.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
T	R91	R92	R93	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8
T+R	T+1R	T+2R	T+3R	T+4R	T+5R	T+6R	T-5R	T-4R	T-3R	T-2R	T-1R

T-A-R through ever-changing modular permutations and combinations can create positive or negative impacts on an economy depending upon the nature of modules formed. Sun rays falling upon the region in a particular month are exposed to this constantly changing Solar functional Energy factors and transmits the transformed solar energy to earth at the time of its exposure. T-A-R transforms sunrays into functional solar energy termed as ‘C’. Earth utilizes this energy according to its character and strength. There is a definite system in the process of change in the power factors and in their permutation and combination. In the long run this system is changed into a new system but within definite parameters.

In the present system of ‘T’ and ‘A’ and their modules represent demand/supply trends in the economy. T/A has a definite function to the resistant factor and power resistant ‘R’. This function is changed to new function every 59 and plus years so that R goes backward to 2nd zone from the original position of ‘R’. This functional equation can be expressed in the following manner:

C (f) = T+A / R

After 59 years: C (f) = (T+A)-2R

After another 59 years C (f) = (T+A) –4R

This change in the position of ‘R’ is in an arithmetic progression with the common difference of –2 till the original position of R in respect of T+A module.

In between the 59 years span the T-A-R components forms umpteen numbers of permutation and combinations that produces different types of supply/ demand and resistant modules to regulate the economy and market. T/A Apex modular formation of ‘T’ and ‘A’ takes place every second decade. The convergence and divergence of ‘T’ and ‘A’ takes place in this period. Convergence and divergence of ‘T’ and ‘R’ takes place every 6 years. Quick repetition of the modular combinations between the two makes them unbearable economically. Convergence and divergence of ‘R’ and ‘A’ takes place every eight years.

If resistant force ‘R’ thrives by making modular formation with ‘T’ without ‘A’ in the modular formation it will create recession or depression in the economy where ‘T’ has a distinct focus. The current recession in US economy (2008) is the right example when T5 (power point) had modular contact with R92 as T+6R when ‘A’ had focus on C9. But R91 focus (USA) from June 2008 aggravated the situation leading to widespread failures of banks, financial institutions and corporations along with weakening of industries and increase in unemployment. The following example will be able to highlight this modular case:

Convergence and divergence of TAR energy factors take place in a very systematic method. Convergence of ‘T’ and ‘R’ is dreadful since both form several modular permutations and combinations while converging and subject the economy to turmoil.

Convergence starts when ‘T’ and ‘R’ are at 180 degrees apart or hold T+6R modular combination. The convergence terminates at the zone when they have joint focus on the nest zone. ‘T’ and ‘A’ also converge in the same manner but their divergence after apex convergence (T+A) is highly productive for the economy. From here they can form T+1A, T+2A, T+4A module, which are productive and result oriented. ‘R’ and ‘A’ also had similar convergence and when they form it damages the productive power of ‘A’. If ‘T’ has modular contact with this R/A module it gets relief and turns somewhat positive to yield productive results. After convergence they diverge apart and gradually move to the position of apex divergence when they stand 180 degrees apart.

We can apply this cyclical convergence and divergence of T-A-R energy factors to explain the economic and cyclical boom and busts and also the normal economic changes.

Crisis Count Down

Depression in Japan

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
A	R.7	R						T
					T-3C			Japan
2008

Japan, the world’s second biggest economy, has officially fallen into an economic recession. The nation’s export business continues to crumble against the rising Yen and the Japanese economy is set for its longest ever contraction. Focus of ‘T’ on C5 the economic zone of Japan and the power point always makes this country vulnerable and let yen appreciate against dollar and other currencies. This is repeated in the year 2007 when ‘T’ had its first focus on C5 in August. R92 also had its focus on C5 along with. Both together had their negative focus on C2 in the month of May-June. This joint focus on C2 did not damage the economies that should have if A8 would not have the simultaneous focus on C2. In 2008 when A8 had its focus shifted to C9 T+6R module became aggressive and at R+C in March 2008 it had it had its first impact on many economy and its spiraling prices. Gold and crude oil prices had relented for the firs time. From July-August the crisis set firmly.

The island’s Gross Domestic Product – the entire value of one nation’s products and services – made an unexpected drop of 0.5 in the quarter July-September. There was downfall in the first quarter from April-June. A recession is defined by two successive quarterly GDP drops for a nation or continent. On annualized basis it was 1.8% shrink. Japan’s export dependent economy was also hit by sluggish overseas shipments as the global financial crisis hit international trade. The latest snapshot of the Japanese economy was even worse than the forecast for a contraction of about 0.2% quarter on quarter made earlier by some analysts. The government said the economy shrank a revised 1.0% in the second quarter, which was also slightly worse than it was thought previously. Many companies have started undercutting employments. Sony corp. is about to cut 8000 of jobs. Signs of the nation’s economic decline can be seen in Sony’s profit outlook cut of 57%, and in the Japanese software market to have 21 percent drop from last year. Perhaps the biggest danger for Japan’s videogame market was the news that the nation saw its volume of business investments drop 1.7 percent from the previous quarter.
. The nation now joins a growing list of major countries that have posted successive GDP losses, such as Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland. A report last week suggested that USA is likely to officially enter a recession soon.

USA will be facing worst type of deflationary situation. Many other economies will also be running similar situation. R9 that is also the power point of USA will have the focus of ‘R’ in 2010 will again erupt the worsening situation for USA. T-A-R structure in 2008-2016 is presented below for a deep study and analysis.

TAR components in 2007 and 2008 as shown below is T5 (Japan) R92 focusing on Japan with R+180 degree focus. This module is called T+6R that have the capacity to cause severe downfall in Japan not for single year but for years together. This module got activated in February-March 2008 and its long term impact is to relax only in 2016 when Japan economic zone is to get a joint focus of R+A. This is the first phase of the depression for Japan.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
		R						T			A
USA								Japan
2007

The focus of ‘T’ on C5 in 2007 and 2008 is damaging for Japan. T+6R formed by T5 and R92 are a negative module to restrict growth in Japan. ‘A’ is not in the module of T+6R and this is moving away from ‘T’ that provides the electron charges to the proton ‘A’ to make it productive for economic development and growth. This divergence further aggravates the situation to take this country to the quagmire of depression for long.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
A	R.7	R						T
USA								Japan
2008

.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
	R							T
	A	A4-8
2009

In 2009 ‘A’ has moved farther away from ‘T’ when it moved its focus on C92 for 5 months from April to August. But here ‘T’ has formed a modular contact of T+6A with ‘A’ that is beneficial and productive for the economy of Japan but not activated till it T+C in C5 in the month of August only for a short time

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
R		A	A.6						T
2010

In 2010 T6 that formed modular contact with A93 is a definite improvement but this will last for 12 months only. This will of course break the depression phase Japan will be experiencing during hat time.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
R			A	A.6					T		R.8
2011									T+2R

T+2R module with very close convergence of ‘T’ and ‘R’ from August –September without ‘A’ in the module will be damaging for many economies including India caused by T-3C focus on C3.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
R				A	A.6					T	R
2012

The close convergence continues to inflict damages to check economic growth and spread depression.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
R					A	A.6				T
										R
2013

There will be check on depression from July 2013 caused by T+R convergent module in C8 and ‘A’ being in the module from July. But this is not the final termination. Depression phase will continue further.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
								A R		T
USA								Japan
2016

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
	A		R.9	R							T
1986

Let us study the economic asset bubble of 1986 here to understand the role of T-A-R in its creation and its burst.

The Japanese asset price bubble in eighties was an economic bubble formation in Japan from 1986 to 1990 in which real estate prices and also stock prices have inflated very high and the inflation lasted very long till the bubble ended and the prices bottomed out

In1986 T-A-R network was T8 A91 R1 R93.9.T+4R was formed in September (9). T+2A and ‘T’ had its focus on C2 zone (Asset and minerals) through (T+6C) module. T8 had it focus on C5 (Japan) through T-3C module. The joint focus on C2 concerning Japan created Asset price bubble there with prices spiraling up. Whenever ‘T’ and ‘R’ form modules while converging or diverging and ‘T’ also form module with ‘A’ that there is bubble formation in prices of many commodities. Similar module was presenting in 2008 with T5 and R92. Later R91 focus US economy to impact C2.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
T	T					A	A.8
	3-6
1990	R

In 1990 T-A-R network changed to T9 T91 (3-6) A3A4.8 R91 with (T91+R91)-A. The convergence of ‘T’ and ‘R’ in single zone is the apex convergence and A4 being 180degree from them (T+R+6A) that pricked the bubble to burst.

The focus of ‘A’ at the farthest level at 180 degree away (Apex divergence) became the reason for long- drawn depression in Japan. It is only in 2002 the depression relaxed for the reason of convergence of T+A and T+1A modules formed in that year.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
					T	T.8
					R.3	R
2002						A	A.8

In 2002 the T-A-R network was formed as follows: T2 T3.8 A3 A4.8 R3 R2.3. ‘T’ had modular contact with ‘A’ as T+1A that supported to end the long- drawn depression. Surprisingly ‘R’ was on the divergence from ‘T’ and ‘A’ from March (3) in 2002. The constraint factor was no more present to check the productive forces. As a result the prices bottomed out in 2002.

That is miracle of Kantian Energy Cycle of Business. If we view the above example of the present recession in Japan we could see similar T-A-R cyclical positioning: T5 focus on Japan’s power point. ‘R’ is converging towards ‘T’. The convergence will become acute when ‘R; has it focus on C9 another power point focusing USA in 2011. ‘A’ is diverging from ‘R’ and ‘T’ both. In this circumstances Japan’s economy will be burning for long. The burning foundation was laid in 2008 itself at T5+6R modular formation and without A8 in the module.

At this situation a review of the great Depression in 1929 on T-A-R scale will be worth watching.

The following chart will exhibit the downfall in industrial production in the country month wise as presented by the ‘American Business Activities since 1790’ The index of industrial production is shown below from January to December in black and the annual industrial production percentage growth rate in the last column of 1870s in red and GDP rate in 1930s along with industrial production rate of decline also in red. The fall in industrial is shown to start from August when the index fell from 16 to 14 and continued falling.

1929		T9	A1/2.5	R2/1.5	12	11	11	12	14	16	16	14	12	9	1	-4	11	6.7
1930	T9		A3.5	R1	-3	-2	-5	-5	-7	-9	-14	-17	-19	-21	-27	-29	-17	-8.3
1931	T9		A3/4.6	R93	-24	-23	-21	-21	-22	-25	-26	-29	-33	-35	-35	-36	-18	-7.6
1932	T91		A4/5.11	R93/92.5	-37	-39	-41	-44	-46	-48	-49	-47	-42	-41	-42	-44	-47	-15
1933	T91		A5/6.11	R92	-44	-41	-48	-43	-32	-20	-12	-19	-25	-31	-36	-36	19	-1.8

1929.8 1933.3 1937.5 1938.6 1939.7

T9 T91 T93.2 T93T1.4 T1

A1A2.5 A6A5(2-9) A91.3A9.9 A92.3 A93

R2R1.5 R92 R9 R8R7.8 R7

T-4R.5,T-A.5, T+6C.8 A5, R+6A ended downfall T-3R .R+4C: depression second phase ended in June T-R,T-A.9,A9.9, T+6R

-50 /43m ‘A’ diverging from T+4R as in 1873

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
T				A	A2.5
				R.5	R
1929

‘T’ and ‘R’ were in power points and in convergence mode while ‘A’ was diverging.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
	T	R						A	A
								2-9
1933

In 1933 ‘A6’ came very close of convergence to T91 and was in the module of T-4A.

The great depression of 1929 started in the month of August when R1+C /T+4R modules were formed. T9 and R1 had focus on power points creating one of the worst impacts on the economies concerned. Here US economy represented by T9 was involved. To add fuel to the fire ‘A1 had diverged from this module to C2. This made the T+4R module aggressive for a longer period that lasted till 1933 in the first phase. In the second phase the downtrend again started from 1937 March at T-3R with T93 and R9 and A91 not in the module of T-3R. The depression had sign to end in June 1938 with industrial production rate improving but it again erupted in 1939 and terminated in May at T+6R/ T+C. The intensity of the depression had gone up to 50 below the normal level as registered in ‘American Business Activities since 1790’ and show in the beginning.

In 1873 similar situation had occurred.

1873	T91	A4A5.5	R2/1.6	15	14	14	12	10	8	6	5	3	1	-2	-4	-2
1874	T91	A5/6. 6	R1	-3	-4	-5	-4	-4	-3	-3	-4	-4	-6	-6	-6	-4
1875	T92	A7A8.11	R93.1	-7	-7	-7	-7	-7	-8	-8	-9	-11	-12	-13	-12	-4
1876	T92	A8	R93/92.6	-10	-10	-11	-10	-10	-10	-9	-10	-11	-11	-11	-12	0
1877	T92	A9	R92	-12	-12	-11	-11	-10	-10	-9	-9	-10	-10	-11	-12	8.7

1873.1 1876 1878 1879.3

T91 T92 T93 T93

A4A5.5 A8 A91.2 A92.2

R2R1.6 R92.6 R91.2 R91

T+4R,R1, R+6C T+R.6, T-3A R+A.2 R-A.2

-12/65m ‘A’ diverging from T+4R

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
	T			R.6	R		A	A.5
1873

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
	R	A.2	T
	A
1879

The period from 1873 and 1979 March was that of long and perhaps the longest downturn in the history of US economy. There was intermittent improvement in the industrial production index but only temporarily and the index could not reach the normal level until 1879 August.

The main feature of this depression is the converging T91 and R1 at close level that has the power to create havoc in the economy if not supported by ‘A’. Here, A4 was on the apex divergence* from T91 that is at the farthest angular distance to have impact. Consequently T/R module and its closer convergence had long depressive impact on the economy that lasted for 65 months to recover. *Apex divergence is the focus of two TAR factors at 180 degree to each other.

This period can be compared to the great depression of 1929 when T9 and R1 were converging starting from the power points at a time A1 had just diverged from C1 to C2. The major difference between 1873 depression and 1929 depression is the TAR focus that started with PowerPoint T9 and R1 forming the depressive module of T+4R in 1929 but in 1873 the module T+4R formation started with T91 and R2, which is a weaker zone for causing weaker depression. The intensity of the depression was -11 below normal s shown in ‘American Business Activities since 1790’in 1873-1879 compared with -50 in 1929-1936 depression periods. The time duration in both the cases is the same approximately.

A deeper study of TAR network can answer all the long or short economic activities cyclical or non-cyclical in nature. T-A-R network has been explored and designed with precision after a long research. You can enquire about T-A-R and ‘Kantian Energy Cycle of Business for more details or explanation to

Kanti.pandit@gmail.com or kanti.pandit@yahoo.com

References:

1. ‘American Business Activity since 1790’
2. ‘National Bureau of Economic Research’
3. ‘‘Business Cycle’ www.cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/business.htm
4. Economy of the United States – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

5.Business Cycles: The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics | Library …

www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BusinessCycles.html

6 Department of Commerce
Source: The Conference Board (http://www.globalindicators.org)

7. www.mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae5_2_3.pdf – Similar pages
by B Powell – 2002 –

8. Bubble Burst

www.grips.ac.jp/teacher/oono/hp/lecture_J/lec13.htm -

9. The Economic Times ‘Japan in Deeper Depression’dated 10^th Dec.2008

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Gold Price Trend Forecast 2009

Gold Price Trend Forecast -2009

Kanti Mohan Pandit, Director, Center Business
Intelligence & forecasting

Wishing all my readers and gold investors
very happy and prosperous new year 2009

The year 2008 is over with gold price ‘Humbling Down’ as my
forecast was made for the year published in June 2008.
The gold after peaking in March at $1032 touched $713 in October. It again ran up to $889 in December and settled at $869 on 30th December.

The other periodical forecasts on gold prices published by me
also came true to the satisfaction of the readers.
www.microsolar.wordpress.com
Kitco Gold Forum (www.kitocomm.com)
My forecast was based on an innovative model
‘Functional Solar Energy’ I have developed after a prolonged research work done on the subject of solar energy that is not the physical one in terms of light and heat but electrical. Solar Functional energy is a function of Solar Protons (A) Electrons (T) emanating from two external sources that transform the solar energy into electrical energy absorbed by earth to produce resources and products with the help of human tools. This Solar Functional Energy is subject to retardation by Dark energy (R) that causes growth and decline cycles in the world economy. The strength of this trio keeps on varying in course of time and causing unlimited changes in the economies worldwide.

I now venture out with the forecast on gold price for the whole year
of 2009 based on the same model. I hope that would satisfy the
readers and they might take advantage of these forecasts in their
investments in gold markets.

The basic T-A-R capsule present in the year 2009 is
T5 A91 R91 till 21st April 2004. T-A-R changes to
T5 A92 R91 from 22nd April 2009. T-A-R changes again to
T5 A92 R91 from August 2009. T-A-R again changes to
T6 A91 R91 from September 2009.
With so many changes in T-A-R profile gold price trend
is bound to change several times. The basic trends for 2009
gold are basically downward but not wilder. Investors would
be able to take advantage of the periodical up trends in between
as shown in the following chart. The gold price is likely to range
in between $866 -$609- $690 per troy ounce. The bottom is likely
to arrive in the month of May 2009. The following chart has hinted
these trends.

2009 T A R
T5 A91 R91
T6.8 A92.5-7 R91
.12.14 Zone C9 C9 Uptrend 9-14 Jan.
.to 01.13 Cc +3 %
.01.14 C91 R+A+C Downward price
.to 02.13 -17%
.02.14 C92 T+6C Overall downward trend except last part
.03.13 +6.5%
.03.14 C93 Up trend first week and last week
To .04.13 -8%
.04.14 C1 Downtrend except last week
.05.13 -6%
.05.14 C2 T-3C Uptrend first week
.06 14 R-4C +7%
.06.15 C3 Downtrend except last of June
.07.16 +3.5%
.07.17 C4 R+6C Downtrend
.08.16 Confused period
.08.17 C5 T+C Small downtrend
.09.16 -4%
.09.17 C6 R-4C/A-4C Downtrend except the first part
.10.16 -9%
.10.17 C7 T+2C Uptrend
.11.15 +8%
.11.15 C8 Mixed trend
.12.13 +5%
.12.14 C9 Uptrend
.12.31 +5%

This is a general view of the trends of gold price in the global
market. I would publish my close comments and micro T-A-R
analysis in course of the market movements.
Till then, best of luck and wishes for a profitable year of 2009
Disclaimer: These forecasts are indications only and I don’t
take responsibility for losses if any incurred based on these
indications.

Deep Depression of 2009

Deep Depression of 2009

Model: Kantian Energy Cycle of Business

Premise: Solar Functional Energy is the basis of all economics

By Kanti Mohan Pandit, Director, Business Intelligence & forecasting Kolkata

Abstract

The global economy is already suffering from recession. Some countries are on the edge to enter depression phase. Japan is on the threshold to enter another long run depression that is likely to end by 2020. This forecast is based on the ‘Kantian Energy Cycle of Business’ that takes into account the solar Functional Energy as the base. Solar Functional Energy is the solar rays transformed into solar electricity by external sources of positive charges (A) and negative charges (T). The combination of T+A is a source of productive energy that establishes functional relationship with earth and activates human brain software to act for productive activities. The presence of dark energy ‘R’ often intercepts this productive energy and checks or weakens the productive activities to cause slump in the economy. Functional energy is created by ‘T’ ‘A’ and ‘R’ function in a system of C(f)=T+A/R that repeats every 59 years in an arithmetic progression so that ‘R’ focus becomes -2R focus and -4R focus and so on. The system can explain all the economic phenomena in an economy and forecast the future as well

Main

The most major economic crisis world has ever faced is the Great Depression of 1929 in the United States of America during 1929 to 1933 to 1939. In 1873 also there this country had faced a long drawn depression though the intensity of this crisis was not very high. In both the periods price trends were deflationary for a long period. Stock market had downtrend movement during depression period of 1929.

The recent recession of 2008 that engulfed so many economies in the world is gradually moving toward depression in some countries. Japan is already moving towards long contraction. There is doubt in everyone’s mind whether an economist or a common man about ‘How long will this recession last and which countries are going to have severe impact’? This question will be answered by the ‘Kantian Energy Cycle C/T-A-R. Kantian Energy cycle is determined by the solar functional energy ‘C’, which is a derivative of solar rays transformed by T-A-R energy components.

‘Solar functional Energy’ and its principal components ‘T-A-R’ will be able to analyze and explain these downward trends of the past and that is present today. They can be used to predict the forthcoming economic trends in the future. You will surprise to know that the basic structure of T-A-R components present today in 2008 and the following strategic years is very much like the TAR structure present in 1873 and 1929. 1929 structure of T-A-R is closer to that of 2008. The intensity of T-A-R is likely to be wilder in later parts of 2009 onward to create as much worse an economic downturn as that was in 1929 great depression. But this time the focal point is more towards the Japanese economy than USA.

In Japan the asset price bubbles had last started in1986 and lasted till 1990 when the bubble had burst. The economy of Japan remained in long drawn depression till 2002/03 when the stocks and asset prices bottomed out. It is virtually from this period only asset prices in many countries took an aggressive upward move.

How do T-A-R basics and solar functional Energy analyze and explain the price and market movement is given below but for this you have to briefly understand about this Kantian energy profile and TAR network.

T-A-R is a composite energy module having electrical components of positive charges (‘A’) referred to as Proton and negative charges(‘T’) referred to as Electron that transform sunrays on the way to earth into electrical energy. After the conversion sunrays becomes source of ‘solar functional energy’ termed as ‘C’ that establishes a functional relationship with earth and its resources to turn these into economic produce or wealth by taking human help through activating the brain software in human beings. You may not agree to or may dispute this theory but a patient glance and analytical watch on the following case studies will surprise you to accept this. The only condition is to shed any preconception and ego.

The biggest operational constraint faced by this Solar Functional Energy is the presence of dark energy ‘R’ that is potent enough to corrupt its functionality at the right level. Whenever ‘R’ intercepts the focus of solar functional energy or its components ‘T’ or ‘A’ on earth it makes it/ them non-functional or weakly functional. ‘T’ and ‘A’ move clockwise and focus earth. ‘R’ intercepts them by moving anticlockwise. They do this in a way to converge and diverge at certain intervals and thereby create cyclical energy contents and capsules of various potencies that ultimately affects the economies and their operational levels.

There are three types of permutations and combinations of T-A-R components while on the move to each other and while converging and diverging: T+A, T+R or R+A. T+A is a productive module at convergence that takes the form of T+1A, T+2A T+3A, T+4A, T+5A and T+6A. T+6A terminate the modular power of T/A series of modules. After this terminal point there is divergence of ‘T’ and ‘A’ forming T-1A. T-2A, T-3A, T-4A, T-5A and finally T-/+6A modules. This completes 360 degree of earth.

Similarly ‘T’ and ‘R’ while converging form T+R, T+1R, T+2R, T+3R, T+4R, T+5R, T+6R and while diverging form T-1R, T-2R, T-3R. T-4R, T-5R and T-/+R. These T/R modules are harmful modules that restrict productivity in the economy. ‘R’ and ‘A’ also forms similar modules but they also don’t promote productivity. ‘’R’ restricts the productive power of ‘A’ and promote recession and deflationary situation in the economy. Out of these modules the most productive modules are T+A, T+1A, T+2A and T-3A. T+A module terminate its productive modular energy at T+6A. The most destructive modules are T+R, T+1R, T+4R, T-4R and T-3R. T+R modules terminate its destructive modular energy at T+6R and vice versa. Let us suppose the following chart represents our earth having 12 segments to be of 360 degree of 30 degree each from C1 to be 30 degree and C93 to be 360 degree.( For more detail explanation on T-A-R visit www.microsolar.wordpress.com or read the e-book ‘Solar Functional Energy’ A1books.com)

The post potent T-A-R positioning is when ‘T’ and ‘A’ are converging to and ‘R’ is just diverging as in 1922 when the American stock market went on rampaging till the great depression started or in 1960s when US economies boomed for years.

The weakest T-A-R positioning is when ‘T’ and ‘R’ are converging with focus on power points and ‘A’ is just diverging from their module. This has occurred in 1929 (the sample is furnished in the following paragraph)

The following charts will exhibit these permutation and combinations along with the solar divisions of earth in C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, C8.C9, C91 C92 and C93. Our earth is divides in 12 parts of 30 degree the base point being Greenwich at 0⁰ East and West as follows:

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
				30	60	90	120	150	180	210	240
270	300	330	360
W	W	W	W West	00 East	E	E	E	E	E	W	W

The following chart shows the modular combinations with ‘T’ in C9 In case ‘T’ has a focus on C9, ‘A’ can form T+A in C9, T+1A module in C91 and so on.

Solar Division of Earth

Solar division of earth gets exposure to Functional solar energy(C) from Jan-December of a year

C

C9

C91

C92

C93

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

C7

C8

Dec Jan

Jan-Feb.

Feb-Mar

Mar-Apr

Apr-May

May-Jun

Jun-July

Jul-Aug

Aug-Sep

Sep-oct

Oct-Nov

Nov-Dec

USA

USA/ Canada

Brazil

UK

Europe Asia

Arab Russia

India

China

Japan Australia S. Korea

14.12

14.1

12.2

15.3

13.4

14.5

15.6

16.7

15.8

16.9

16. 10

15. 11

If we divide earth into 12 parts of 30 degree each longitudinally and name them C1 starting for 0–30 where Europe falls, C5 would include Australia, South Korea parts of Japan and China, and C9 would include important parts of USA. These specialized divisions are uniformly placed at equidistance from each other. From C1, C5 is situated 120 degree apart, from C5, C9 is situated 120 degree apart and from C9, C1 is again situated 120 degree apart. These are highly important zones on earth known as energy power points. Any damage to these power points by ‘T’ or ‘R’ will put the entire global economy in jeopardy with downturns. ‘A’ focus has productive impact there ‘A’ can minimize the negative effects of T/R module if in modular contacts with them. For example: T+A+R can make them positive to promote productive results. (T+R)+2A can also make the module productive but if T+R are in a power point C1 or C5 or C9 then ‘A’ in the module of T+R can’t make them productive. There are umpteen numbers of examples.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
T	A91	A92	A93	A1	A2	A3	A4	A5	A6	A7	A8
T+A	T+1A	T+2A	T+3A	T+4A	T+5A	T+6A	T-5A	T-4A	T-3A	T-2A	T-1A

Similarly ‘R’ can form T+R in C9, T+1R in C91 and so on.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
T	R91	R92	R93	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8
T+R	T+1R	T+2R	T+3R	T+4R	T+5R	T+6R	T-5R	T-4R	T-3R	T-2R	T-1R

T-A-R through ever-changing modular permutations and combinations can create positive or negative impacts on an economy depending upon the nature of modules formed. Sun rays falling upon the region in a particular month are exposed to this constantly changing Solar functional Energy factors and transmits the transformed solar energy to earth at the time of its exposure. T-A-R transforms sunrays into functional solar energy termed as ‘C’. Earth utilizes this energy according to its character and strength. There is a definite system in the process of change in the power factors and in their permutation and combination. In the long run this system is changed into a new system but within definite parameters.

In the present system of ‘T’ and ‘A’ and their modules represent demand/supply trends in the economy. T/A has a definite function to the resistant factor and power resistant ‘R’. This function is changed to new function every 59 and plus years so that R goes backward to 2nd zone from the original position of ‘R’. This functional equation can be expressed in the following manner:

C (f) = T+A / R

After 59 years: C (f) = (T+A)-2R

After another 59 years C (f) = (T+A) –4R

This change in the position of ‘R’ is in an arithmetic progression with the common difference of –2 till the original position of R in respect of T+A module.

In between the 59 years span the T-A-R components forms umpteen numbers of permutation and combinations that produces different types of supply/ demand and resistant modules to regulate the economy and market. T/A Apex modular formation of ‘T’ and ‘A’ takes place every second decade. The convergence and divergence of ‘T’ and ‘A’ takes place in this period. Convergence and divergence of ‘T’ and ‘R’ takes place every 6 years. Quick repetition of the modular combinations between the two makes them unbearable economically. Convergence and divergence of ‘R’ and ‘A’ takes place every eight years.

If resistant force ‘R’ thrives by making modular formation with ‘T’ without ‘A’ in the modular formation it will create recession or depression in the economy where ‘T’ has a distinct focus. The current recession in US economy (2008) is the right example when T5 (power point) had modular contact with R92 as T+6R when ‘A’ had focus on C9. But R91 focus (USA) from June 2008 aggravated the situation leading to widespread failures of banks, financial institutions and corporations along with weakening of industries and increase in unemployment. The following example will be able to highlight this modular case:

Convergence and divergence of TAR energy factors take place in a very systematic method. Convergence of ‘T’ and ‘R’ is dreadful since both form several modular permutations and combinations while converging and subject the economy to turmoil.

Convergence starts when ‘T’ and ‘R’ are at 180 degrees apart or hold T+6R modular combination. The convergence terminates at the zone when they have joint focus on the nest zone. ‘T’ and ‘A’ also converge in the same manner but their divergence after apex convergence (T+A) is highly productive for the economy. From here they can form T+1A, T+2A, T+4A module, which are productive and result oriented. ‘R’ and ‘A’ also had similar convergence and when they form it damages the productive power of ‘A’. If ‘T’ has modular contact with this R/A module it gets relief and turns somewhat positive to yield productive results. After convergence they diverge apart and gradually move to the position of apex divergence when they stand 180 degrees apart.

We can apply this cyclical convergence and divergence of T-A-R energy factors to explain the economic and cyclical boom and busts and also the normal economic changes.

Crisis Count Down

Depression in Japan

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
A	R.7	R						T
					T-3C			Japan
2008

Japan, the world’s second biggest economy, has officially fallen into an economic recession. The nation’s export business continues to crumble against the rising Yen and the Japanese economy is set for its longest ever contraction. Focus of ‘T’ on C5 the economic zone of Japan and the power point always makes this country vulnerable and let yen appreciate against dollar and other currencies. This is repeated in the year 2007 when ‘T’ had its first focus on C5 in August. R92 also had its focus on C5 along with. Both together had their negative focus on C2 in the month of May-June. This joint focus on C2 did not damage the economies that should have if A8 would not have the simultaneous focus on C2. In 2008 when A8 had its focus shifted to C9 T+6R module became aggressive and at R+C in March 2008 it had it had its first impact on many economy and its spiraling prices. Gold and crude oil prices had relented for the firs time. From July-August the crisis set firmly.

The island’s Gross Domestic Product – the entire value of one nation’s products and services – made an unexpected drop of 0.5 in the quarter July-September. There was downfall in the first quarter from April-June. A recession is defined by two successive quarterly GDP drops for a nation or continent. On annualized basis it was 1.8% shrink. Japan’s export dependent economy was also hit by sluggish overseas shipments as the global financial crisis hit international trade. The latest snapshot of the Japanese economy was even worse than the forecast for a contraction of about 0.2% quarter on quarter made earlier by some analysts. The government said the economy shrank a revised 1.0% in the second quarter, which was also slightly worse than it was thought previously. Many companies have started undercutting employments. Sony corp. is about to cut 8000 of jobs. Signs of the nation’s economic decline can be seen in Sony’s profit outlook cut of 57%, and in the Japanese software market to have 21 percent drop from last year. Perhaps the biggest danger for Japan’s videogame market was the news that the nation saw its volume of business investments drop 1.7 percent from the previous quarter.
. The nation now joins a growing list of major countries that have posted successive GDP losses, such as Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland. A report last week suggested that USA is likely to officially enter a recession soon.

USA will be facing worst type of deflationary situation. Many other economies will also be running similar situation. R9 that is also the power point of USA will have the focus of ‘R’ in 2010 will again erupt the worsening situation for USA. T-A-R structure in 2008-2016 is presented below for a deep study and analysis.

TAR components in 2007 and 2008 as shown below is T5 (Japan) R92 focusing on Japan with R+180 degree focus. This module is called T+6R that have the capacity to cause severe downfall in Japan not for single year but for years together. This module got activated in February-March 2008 and its long term impact is to relax only in 2016 when Japan economic zone is to get a joint focus of R+A. This is the first phase of the depression for Japan.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
		R						T			A
USA								Japan
2007

The focus of ‘T’ on C5 in 2007 and 2008 is damaging for Japan. T+6R formed by T5 and R92 are a negative module to restrict growth in Japan. ‘A’ is not in the module of T+6R and this is moving away from ‘T’ that provides the electron charges to the proton ‘A’ to make it productive for economic development and growth. This divergence further aggravates the situation to take this country to the quagmire of depression for long.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
A	R.7	R						T
USA								Japan
2008

.

C9	C91	C92	C93	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8
	R							T
	A	A4-8
2009

In 2009 ‘A’ has moved farther away from ‘T’ when it moved its focus on C92 for 5 months from April to August. But here ‘T’ has formed a modular contact of T+6A with ‘A’ that is beneficial and productive for the economy of Japan but not activated till it T+C in C5 in the month of August only for a short time

C9

C91

C92

C93

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

C7